Airbus, the new king of the Skies?!
Having worked at Boeing as an Aerospace engineer, I have always believed in the saying, “If it’s not Boeing, I am not going!”. If Airbus wins the skies over from Boeing, would it become hard in the future to live by that saying? Let’s find out.
Background
Boeing was founded by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington on July 15, 1916. The present corporation is the result of the merger of Boeing with McDonnell Douglas on August 1, 1997. The Boeing Company is a prominent aerospace company, known as the leading manufacturer of commercial jetliners and defense along with space and security systems. On July 27, 1928, the 12-passenger Boeing 80 biplane made its first flight. With three engines, it was Boeing’s first plane built with the sole intention of being a passenger transport. An upgraded version, the 80A, carrying eighteen passengers, made its first flight in September 1929.
On the other hand, Airbus was formally established as an Economic Interest Group or GIE on 18 December 1970. It had been formed by a government initiative between France, West Germany, and the UK that originated in 1967. Airbus A300 entered service in 1974 as the world’s first twin-engined widebody. It was the first product of the Airbus consortium of European aerospace companies. Airbus is today owned by EADS.
Top 10 Aircraft in the Past
Finding the result of the top ten best selling aircraft models in the past was not surprising at all. Boeing was always looked upon as the king of the skies, and it lives up to its reputation in the plot below. Considering McDonnell Douglas as the part of Boeing, eight out of the ten most popular aircraft in the past were Boeing; Boeing 737 as the top contender.
Airbus having started with its first commercial flight of Airbus A300 in 1974 never seemed to be a problem for Boeing, until Airbus launched its A320 in 1989; which later started creating problems for Boeing in the commercial airplane market.
So what year did Airbus start to make an impact in the market?
The time series plot below comparing the total number of orders between Boeing and Airbus starting from the year 1974 through June 2020 is possibly the best representation of the race to be the new king of the skies.
It’s clear looking at the plot that it took Airbus almost two decades to catch up to Boeing. Boeing was the single best commercial airplane manufacturer around the globe for a long period of time. Airbus as the new company, still working on building newer and better models was never a threat for Boeing until it released it’s one of the most successful models, A320.
We see a big climb in the plot around the year 1989 when the Airbus A320 took its first flight and Airbus landed a bunch of new orders. For the next decade, Boeing still managed to stay ahead but Airbus was never too far. Around the year 2000, Airbus inched past Boeing for the first time and they have been the biggest rivals in the commercial airplane market ever since.
We see a steep decline in the total number of orders with Boeing around the years 2014 and 2019. Boeing 787 as one of the most promising models, encountered several problems caused by its lithium-ion batteries, culminating in fires on board. In January 2013, the US FAA grounded all 787s until a revised battery design was approved in April 2013. A new 737 model designed for high performance is being hindered by bizarre hardware and software decisions from Boeing. The combination of a stable, but underpowered onboard computer system with too much and inappropriate software has kept the planes grounded by US FAA for over a year. These two events have been a big setback for Boeing, hence a big drop in orders in the years 2014 and 2019.
We also see an expected decline in both Boeing and Airbus in the Year 2020 due to the ongoing pandemic.
Looking at the sales for Boeing and Airbus geographically
North America
Boeing being the American multinational company that it is, it brings me no surprise that it has always dominated the North American market. Although, the future doesn’t look very promising with Airbus taking over the market more and more as time passes.
Europe
On the other hand, the French company Airbus has outpaced Boeing quite significantly in Europe. Boeing having the majority of the share of the commercial airplane market in the past seems to be losing its hold in the years to come.
Asia
Boeing has always been leading in Asia capturing more than 60% of the market until recently. Airbus has almost caught up with Boeing considering the total number of aircraft in service in Asia. The future looks more promising for Airbus and this could end up bad for Boeing; Asia is the biggest market for commercial airplanes.
South America
South America is also switching roles from being a strong supporter for Boeing in the past to giving more business to Airbus in the present and future.
Africa & Australia
Airbus is getting stronger in both Africa and Asia considering the past but it still needs a lot of catching up to do. It’s a good opportunity for Boeing to not let these two continents out of its hands, and maintain its hold.
What has been the most-sold aircraft for Boeing and Airbus?
Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 have been the most impactful airplanes of all time. Although, It’s shocking to find out that about 62% of the Boeing airplanes flying around are 737s alone, while about 50% of the Airbus out there in the skies are A-320 alone.
Comparing Boeing 737 and Airbus A320
After being launched in 1988, it didn’t take too long for Airbus A320 to become the biggest competitor to Boeing 737.
In terms of deliveries, Boeing has shipped 8,918 airplanes of the 737 family since March 1988 and has a further 4,763 on firm order as of December 2018. In comparison, Airbus has delivered 8,605 A320 series aircraft since their certification/first delivery in early 1988, with another 6,056 on firm order (as of December 2018).
It’s hard to differentiate between these two models. Although, Boeing’s most promising model 737 Max being grounded by US FAA since 2019, gives Airbus an upper hand.
What could be causing customer airlines to prefer Airbus over Boeing?
The first thing that probably comes to mind is the cost of the airplanes. Maybe Airbus is cheaper than Boeing?
Even though Airbus A320 is a bit cheaper than Boeing, but it is not that significant of a difference that would cause customer airlines to leave the well renowned Boeing, and move to Airbus.
This needs to be further looked into for clarification.
Conclusion
Airbus holds a strong position in the commercial airplane market and its future looks pretty bright as compared to that of Boeing. After a couple of big incidents with Boeing’s top models, 737 and 787 it seems to be losing the crown to Airbus over time.
Airbus getting more popular in Asia and North America is one of the biggest worries for Boeing moving into the future. If Boeing is not able to turn around the market in it’s favor in time, I am afraid to say I might not be able to live with that old saying, “If it’s not Boeing, I am not going!”.
